基于D-S证据理论和贝叶斯网络的煤与瓦斯突出事故致因研究
Study on cause of coal and gas outburst accident based on D-S evidence theory and Bayesian network
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摘要: 为探究煤矿煤与瓦斯突出事故发生机理及影响因素，从人、机、环、管4个方面选取诱发煤与瓦斯突出事故的因素，借助D-S证据理论和贝叶斯网络对事故进行致因风险研究；基于D-S证据理论融合专家知识得出网络结构，并通过贪婪搜索算法对网络结构进行优化修正；采用EM算法进行参数学习，获取相关因素间的条件概率和后验概率，同时寻找导致事故发生的关键因素和识别敏感性因素，得出最大风险源链并加以分析。结果表明：导致煤与瓦斯突出最主要的致因因素是环境因素（87.4%），其次是管理因素（84.7%）、机械因素（80.3%）和人为因素（82.7%）；矿井煤体结构、地质赋存条件差、未做防突措施，安全隐患排查不到位、瓦斯超限、监测系统不完善和通风设施不足是诱发煤矿煤与瓦斯突出事故发生的重要影响因素。Abstract: To explore the mechanism and influencing factors of coal and gas outburst accidents in coal mines, the factors inducing coal and gas outburst accidents were selected from four aspects: human, machine, environment and management, and the risk of accidents was studied by D-S evidence theory and Bayesian network. D-S evidence theory fuses expert knowledge to get the network structure, and then optimizes and corrects the network structure through greedy search algorithm. The EM algorithm is used to learn the parameters, obtain the conditional probability and posterior probability among the related factors, find out the key factors leading to the accident and identify the sensitive factors, and get the maximum risk source chain and analyze it. The results show that the main cause of coal and gas outburst is environmental factors（８７．４％）, followed by management factors （８４．７％）, mechanical factors（８０．３％） ａｎｄ ｈｕｍａｎ ｆａｃｔｏｒｓ（８２．７％）. Poor coal structure, geological conditions, without outburst prevention measures, inadequate investigation of potential safety hazards, gas overrun, imperfect monitoring system and insufficient ventilation facilities are the important influencing factors that induce coal and gas outburst accidents in coal mines.
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