Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model

XUE Yong’an; JI Zhe; ZHANG Wenzhi

Safety in Coal Mines > 2023 > 54(1): 101-108.

XUE Yong’an, JI Zhe, ZHANG Wenzhi. Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2023, 54(1): 101-108.

Citation:

XUE Yong’an, JI Zhe, ZHANG Wenzhi. Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2023, 54(1): 101-108.

Citation:

XUE Yong’an, JI Zhe, ZHANG Wenzhi. Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2023, 54(1): 101-108.

PDF (1479 KB)

Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model

More Information

Published Date: January 19, 2023

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the GM（1,1）model for its application in residual deformation prediction of goaf, the residual modification GM（1，1） model was constructed based on the gray GM（1，1） model. The positive residual fitting correction of GM（1，1） model prediction results was carried out with unary quadratic polynomial. The monitoring data sets of surface residual settlement in goaf with equal and non-equal spacing were used for example verification. The results show that: the prediction accuracy of GM（1，1） model modified by nonlinear polynomial fitting after residual correction is improved obviously. However, GM（1，1） model modified by polynomial fitting of original residual error has no obvious improvement effect on prediction accuracy. Residual positive fitting correction is an effective post-processing improvement method for GＭ（1，1） model.
- residual deformation,
- GM（1,1） model,
- deformation prediction,
- Newton interpolation,
- residual modification

FullText(HTML)

References (29)

References

[1]	邹友峰，邓喀中，马伟民．矿山开采沉陷工程[Ｍ]．徐州：中国矿业大学出版社，2003.
[2]	王瀚斌．采煤沉陷区残余变形预测模型研究[D]．阜新：辽宁工程技术大学，2016.
[3]	郭广礼，邓喀中，谭志祥，等．深部老采区残余沉降预计方法及其应用[J]．辽宁工程技术大学学报，2002， 21（1）：1－3. GUO Guangli, DENG Kazhong, TAN Zhixiang, et al. Study on the prediction method of ground residual subsidence in the deep abandoned longwall goal and its application[J]. Journal of Liaoning Technical University（natural Science Edition）, 2002, 21（1）: 1-3.
[4]	王正帅，邓喀中．老采空区残余沉降的离散灰色预测模型[J]．煤炭学报，2010，35（7）：1084－1088. WANG Zhengshuai, DENG Kazhong. Discrete grey prediction model of old goal residual subsidence[J]. Journal of China Coal Society, 2010, 35（7）: 1084-1088.
[5]	王磊，郭广礼，查剑锋，等．老采空区地表残余沉降预计与应用[J]．采矿与安全工程学报，2011，28（2）：283－287. WANG Lei, GUO Guangli, ZHA Jianfeng. Prediction of surface residual settlement over the old goaf[J]. Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering, 2011, 28（2）: 283-287.
[6]	易四海．地表残余沉陷变形机理数值模拟与预计参数分析[J]．煤矿开采，2016，21（2）：29－32. YI Sihai. Forecast parameters and numerical simulation of mechanism of surface residual subsidence deformation [J]. Coal Mining Technology, 2016, 21（2）: 29-32.
[7]	蔡音飞，VERDEL Thierry, OLIVIER Deck，等．地形影响下的开采沉陷影响函数法优化[J]．煤炭学报，2016，41（1）：271－276. CAI Yinfei, VERDEL Thierry, OLIVIER Deck, et al. Improving the influence function method to take topography into the calculation of mining subsidence[J]. Journal of China Coal Society, 2016, 41（1）: 271-276.
[8]	孙富强．山区煤矿老采空区地表残余移动变形预测模型研究[D]．徐州：江苏师范大学，2018.
[9]	李金洋，臧明东，徐能雄，等．基于概率积分法的采空区残余变形对桑掌隧道的影响研究[J]．工程地质学报，2021，29（2）：564－574. LI Jinyang, ZANG Mingdong, XU Nengxiong, et al. Influence of residual deformation of goaf to Sangzhang tunnel with probability integral method[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2021, 29（2）: 564-574.
[10]	柴华彬，邹友峰．煤矿采空区地表残余变形及稳定性研究[J]．矿山测量，2013（6）：20－22. CHAI Huabin, ZOU Youfeng. Study on the surface’s residual deformations and stability of mining out areas[J]. Mine Surveying, 2013（6）: 20-22.
[11]	张宏贞，邓喀中，刘洪义．老采空区残余下沉系数的神经网络模型研究[J]．采矿与安全工程学报，2009， 26（3）：322－326. ZHANG Hongzhen, DENG Kazhong, LIU Hongyi. Artificial neural network model for predicting residual subsidence coefficient of abandoned mine goaf[J]. Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering, 2009, 26（3）: 322-326.
[12]	郭庆彪．煤矿老采空区上方高速公路建设安全性评价及其关键技术研究[D]．徐州：中国矿业大学，2017.
[13]	王金涛，郭广礼，郭庆彪，等．相关性的组合预测模型在开采沉陷中的应用[J]．测绘科学，2017，42（10）：185－189. WANG Jintao, GUO Guangli, GUO Qingbiao, et al. A combined model for mining subsidence forecasting based on correlativity[J]. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2017, 42（10）: 185-189.
[14]	杨彪，李慧民，孟海，等．基于ＧＭ－ＡＮＮ模型的建筑物沉降量变化趋势预测方法[J]．中国安全生产科学技术，2016，12（10）：149－153. YANG Biao, LI Huimin, MENG Hai, et al. Prediction method on change trend of building settlement based on GM-ANN model[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2016, 12（10）: 149-153.
[15]	邓聚龙．灰色预测与灰决策[Ｍ]．武汉：华中科技大学出版社，2002.
[16]	郭广礼，张国良，张贻广．灰色系统模型在沉陷预测中的应用[J]．中国矿业大学学报，1997，26（4）：64 -67. GUO Guangli, ZHANG Guoliang, ZHANG Yiguang. Use of grey system model in subsidence prediction[J]. Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 1997, 26（4）: 64-67.
[17]	刘文生，吴作启，崔铁军，等．基于改进灰色系统的深基坑变形预测方法研究[J]．中国安全生产科学技术，2014，10（11）：21－26. LIU Wensheng, WU Zuoqi, CUI Tiejun, et al. Research on deformation prediction method of deep foundation pit based on improved gray system[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2014, 10（11）: 21-26.
[18]	杨俊凯，范洪冬，赵伟颖，等．基于D－ＩｎＳＡＲ技术和灰色Ｖｅｒｈｕｌｓｔ模型的矿区沉降监测与预计[J]．金属矿山，2015，44（3）：143－147. YANG Junkai, FAN Hongdong, ZHAO Weiying, et al. Monitoring and prediction of mining subsidence based on D-InSAR and gray verhulst model[J]. Metal Mine, 2015, 44（3）:143-147.
[19]	王强，吴盛，杨静，等．基于卡尔曼滤波的ＧＭ（1，1）在变形监测中的应用研究[J]．矿山测量，2020，48（5）：52－56. WANG Qiang, WU Sheng, YANG Jing, et al. Application of GM（1,1） in deformation monitoring based on Kalman filter[J]. Mine Surveying, 2020, 48（5）: 52-56.
[20]	沈艳，韩煜，韩帅，等．残差修正的ＣＧＭ（1，1）模型研究及应用[J]．数学的实践与认识，2020，50（10）：195－203. SHEN Yan, HAN Yu, HAN Shuai. Research and application of residual error corrected CGM（1,1） model[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2020, 50（10）: 195-203.
[21]	高媛媛，魏勇．灰色模型背景值优化的一种新方法[J]．统计与决策，2020，36（7）：23－28. GAO Yuanyuan, WEI Yong. A new method for optimizing background value of grey model[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2020, 36（7）:23-28.
[22]	杨国华，颜艳，杨慧中．ＧＭ（1，1）灰色预测模型的改进与应用[J]．南京理工大学学报，2020，44（5）：575-582. YANG Guohua, YAN Yan, YANG Huizhong. Application of improved GM（1,1） grey prediction model[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology, 2020, 44（5）: 575-582.
[23]	黄声享，尹晖，蒋征．变形监测数据处理[Ｍ]．武汉：武汉大学出版社，2003.
[24]	刘帅，栾元重，马艳贺．基于插值的非等间距ＧＭ（1，1）建模方法[J]．山东科技大学学报（自然科学版），2018，37（3）：20－25. LIU Shuai, LUAN Yuanzhong, MA Yanhe. Modeling methods of non-equidistant GM（1,1） model based on interpolation[J]. Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology（Natural Science）, 2018, 37（3）: 20-25.
[25]	尹晖，周晓庆，张晓鸣．非等间距ＧＭ（1，1）建模方法对比分析及应用[J]．测绘工程，2017（2）：1－4. YIN Hui, ZHOU Xiaoqing, ZHANG Xiaoming. Non-equidistant GM（1,1） modeling comparison and application[J]. Engineering of Surveying and Mapping, 2017（2）: 1-4.
[26]	潘国荣，乔立洋．非等间距改进灰色模型在基坑变形预测中的应用[J]．测绘地理信息，2019，44（1）：9-13. PAN Guorong, QIAO Liyang. Application of improved non-equidistance gray model in foundation pits deformation prediction[J]. Journal of Geomatics, 2019, 44（1）: 9-13.
[27]	张振超，袁德宝，张军，等．优化非等间距ＧＭ（1，1）模型及其在变形监测中的应用[J]．测绘科学技术学报，2020，37（2）：124－132. ZHANG Zhenchao, YUAN Debao, ZHANG Jun, et al. Optimized non-equidistant GM（1,1） model and its application in deformation monitoring[J]. Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology, 2020, 37（2）: 124-132.
[28]	瞿军，高云飞，邢志娜，等．非等间距ＧＭ（1，1）模型研究[J]．海军航空工程学院学报，2018，33（4）：401－406. QU Jun, GAO Yunfei, XING Zhina, et al. Research on the unequal interval GM（1,1） model[J]. Journal of Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, 2018, 33（4）: 401-406.
[29]	蔡保杰，邵雷，李正杰．采用卡方检验和牛顿插值的抗差卡尔曼滤波新算法[J]．空军工程大学学报：自然科学版，2020，21（1）：38－43. CAI Baojie, SHAO Lei, LI Zhengjie. A new robust kalman filter algorithm based on chisquare test and newton interpolation[J]. Journal of Air Force Engineering University（Natural Science Edition）, 2020, 21（1）: 38-43.

[1]	HE Chengmao, WANG Yang, ZHANG Qingfeng. Research on change law of fire smoke characteristics during dynamic sealing process of mine tunnels[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2025, 56(1): 100-106. DOI: 10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.20240006
[2]	YANG Xue, YANG Juan, ZHANG Hanyuan. Study on emotional evolution mechanism of miners based on system dynamics[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2021, 52(1): 252-256.
[3]	ZHANG Zhe, QIN Xinglin. Adsorption Dynamics Characteristic of Tectonic Coal in Yuwu Coal Mine[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2020, 51(8): 28-31,36.
[4]	SHEN Yunge, WANG Deming. Numerical Simulation of Smoke Disaster Caused by Mine Roadway Fire Based on FDS[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2020, 51(2): 183-187.
[5]	SUO Zaibin, WU Shiyue, NIU Yu, CHEN Jin. Numerical Simulation of the Influence of Slope on Upward Ventilation Fire[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2019, 50(1): 192-195,199.
[6]	ZHAO Yunlong, WANG Fei, LIU Hongwei, LI Pu. FDS Simulation and Analysis of Mine Electromechanical Chamber Fire[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2018, 49(12): 181-184.
[7]	YAN Jun′ai, GUO Zhen. Research on Influencing Factors of Coal Mine Emergency Capability Based on System Dynamics[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2015, 46(4): 228-230.
[8]	LIU Dong. Study on System Dynamics of Coal Mine Safety Impact Factors[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2014, 45(2): 212-214,217.
[9]	ZHANG Xin-hai, XING Zhen, MA Li, LI Hao. FDS Numerical Simulation for Partial Inverted Ventilation of Exogenous Mine Fire[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2013, 44(11): 185-186,190.
[10]	QU Zhi-ming, WANG Yu-de, ZHOU Xin-quan. Dynamic Laws and Numerical Simulation Study of Gas Explosion Shock Wave[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2013, 44(4): 1-5.

Cited By

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (37) PDF downloads (212)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Catalog

Study on residual deformation prediction of goaf based on residual modified GM（1,1）model

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content