Statistics and evolution trend analysis and prediction of coal mine water disaster accidents in China in the 21st century

Through sorting out the data of coal mine accidents in China from 2000 to 2023 from National Mine Safety Administration and other official channels, this study makes a statistical analysis on the data of water disaster accidents, studies the evolution law and trend of water disaster accidents in China since the 21st century, the distribution characteristics and the causes behind the major water disasters, and predicts the situation of water disaster accidents in coal mines in 2024 and 2025. The results show that the number and death rate of water disaster accidents in China from 2000 to 2023 show a step decline and a negative correlation trend with raw coal production; the distribution of major water disasters has obvious temporal and spatial characteristics, with the most serious accidents in Northeast, North and South China, and concentrated in March to May and July to August every year, from 9:00 to 12:00 every day; there are various types of water damage in coal mines in China, the most frequent is goaf water damage, and the most average death toll is surface flood; the Holt model predicts that in 2024, the death rate of water damage per million tons is 0.001 33, the raw coal production is 4.968 billion tons, and the death toll caused by water damage accidents is 6-7; in 2025, the death rate of one million tons is 0.000 66, the raw coal production is 5.113 billion tons, and the death toll caused by water disasters is 3 to 4.