基于Fisher判别法的煤层底板突水预测模型及其应用

    Prediction Model for Coal Mine Floor Water Inrush and Its Application Based on Fisher Discrimination Method

    • 摘要: 选取地质构造、水文地质特征、底板隔水层特征和开采活动4个大类13个因子作为底板突水的判识指标,以近年来发生的典型煤矿底板突水案例作为学习样本,依据Fisher判别分析法,建立了煤层底板突水预测的距离判别分析模型。结果表明,该模型预测结果与实际情况一致,采用回代估计法所得的误判率很小。因此,选取4个大类13个因子来反映煤矿底板突水状况和应用Fisher判别法预测煤矿底板突水具有良好的实用性和有效性。

       

      Abstract: Seleting thirteen factors from four categories including geological structure, hydrogeological characteristics, floor aquifuge features and mining activities as discrimination index for floor water inrush, taking water inrush cases of typical coal mines happened in recent years as learning sample, distance discriminant analysis model for coal mine floor water inrush is established according to Fisher discrimination method. The results show that the the predicted results of model are consistent with the actual situation, and the misjudgement rate got from back substitution estimation method is small. So selelting four categories thirteen factors to reflect the situation of coal mine floor water inrush and using Fisher liner discrimination method to predict coal mine floor water inrush have good practicality and effectiveness.

       

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