距离判别分析理论在突出预测中的应用
The Application of Distance Discriminant Analysis Theory in Coal and Gas Outburst Prediction
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摘要: 为了更加准确的预测煤与瓦斯突出的危险性,基于距离判别分析理论,选取电磁辐射预测指标(电磁辐射强度E和脉冲数N)和常规指标R指标、钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q及钻屑量S作为判别因子,选取演马庄矿某掘进工作面2011年4、5月日常预测数据作为训练样本,建立了工作面突出预测的距离判别分析模型。用所建立的模型对该掘进工作面待检验的6月份日常预测数据进行分析,预测结果与实际情况吻合良好,结果表明:距离判别分析模型方法简单、预测精度较单一指标有明显提高,误判率低,实现了动态预测和静态预测的有效结合,该方法在煤与瓦斯突出预测中具有较好的可行性和实用性。Abstract: In order to more accurately predict the risk of coal and gas outburst,based on distance discriminant analysis theory,electromagnetic radiation forecasting index(electromagnetic radiation intensity E and pulse number N) and conventional index(R index,drilling gas inrush initial velocity q and drilling cuttings weight S)were regarded as discriminant factors,daily forecast data in April and May of heading face in Yanmazhuang mine was taken as training samples,and the distance discriminant analysis model of coal and gas outburst prediction of working face was established.The model was applied to analyze daily forecast data in June of the heading face,prediction results and the practical situation were approved,and the results showed that the method of distance discriminant analysis model was simple,prediction accuracy was higher than single indicator,and misjudgment rate was low,which realized the effective combination of the dynamic prediction and static prediction.This method in the coal and gas outburst prediction has good feasibility and practicability.
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