基于PCA-SAPSO-BP神经网络的瓦斯涌出量预测研究

    Prediction of gas emission based on PCA-SAPSO-BP neural network

    • 摘要: 为提高煤矿井下瓦斯涌出量预测效率和准确性,针对瓦斯涌出量影响因素的多重相关性、复杂性问题,提出使用主成分分析法对影响因素进行降维处理,针对BP神经网络收敛速度慢且易陷入局部最优解的问题,引入退火粒子群算法优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值;利用Matlab软件编写并构建了PCA-SAPSO-BP神经网络耦合算法对瓦斯涌出量进行预测;选取开滦钱家营煤矿瓦斯涌出量及其影响因子数据作为样本,使用BP神经网络模型、PSO-BP模型和SAPSO-BP模型对样本进行预测。结果表明:PCA-SAPSO-BP神经网络模型的预测平均相对误差为1.06%,PCA-PSO-BP模型为2.20%,PCA-BP模型为3.00%,SAPSO-BP模型为1.61%,PSO-BP模型为2.81%,BP模型为3.98%;预测模型的归一化均方误差为0.002 5,希尔不等系数为0.005 5,平均绝对误差为0.07 m3/min,判定系数为0.997 5,证明PCA-SAPSO-BP神经网络模型提高了BP模型瓦斯涌出量的预测精度。

       

      Abstract: To improve the efficiency and accuracy of gas emission prediction in coal mine, in view of the multiple correlation and complexity of the influencing factors of gas emission, the principal component analysis method is proposed to reduce the dimension of the influencing factors. Aiming at the problem that BP neural network has slow convergence speed and is easy to fall into local optimal solution, annealing particle swarm optimization algorithm is introduced to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network. The coupling algorithm of PCA-SAPSO-BP neural network is compiled and constructed by using Matlab software to predict the gas emission. The data of gas emission and its influencing factors in Qianjiaying Coal Mine in Kailuan Group are selected as samples, and the samples are predicted by BP neural network model, PSO-BP model and SAPSO-BP model. The results show that the average relative error of PCA-SAPSO-BP neural network model is 1.06%, PCA-PSO-BP model is 2.20%, PCA-BP model is 3.00%, SAPSO-BP model is 1.61%, PSO-BP model is 2.81%, BP model is 3.98%; the normalized mean square error of the prediction model is 0.002 5, the Hill inequality coefficient is 0.005 5, the average absolute error is 0.07 m3·min-1, and the judgment coefficient is 0.997 5. It is proved that the PCA-SAPSO-BP neural network model improves the prediction accuracy of gas emission of BP model.

       

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