基于组合赋权－物元可拓模型的煤矿内因火灾安全评价
Safety assessment of internal fire in coal mine based on combined weighting-matter-element extension model
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摘要: 煤矿安全评价中，指标权重的确定尤为关键，对评价结果起着决定性作用。目前，煤矿内因火灾评价中存在指标选取较少、指标权重确定困难、评价等级界定不清等缺点，影响了评价结果的准确性。据此，构建了以煤层地质赋存、开拓开采技术、煤层自燃倾向性、通风条件及采空区管理4个因素为二级指标，煤层厚度、煤层倾角等24种因素为三级指标的煤矿内因火灾评价体系；利用决策模型和欧氏距离函数，将层次分析法主观权重和熵权法客观权重有效融合，获得更为合理的组合权重，利用组合赋权－物元可拓模型对某煤矿内因火灾进行评价，结果为“较安全”等级，与工程实际吻合；将该模型与传统评价方法进行了对比分析，该模型不仅评价结果准确，而且能够反映评价等级内的偏离程度，有效提高了评价结果的精度。Abstract: In coal mine safety evaluation, the determination of index weight is particularly critical, which plays a decisive role in the evaluation results. At present, there are some shortcomings in the evaluation of internal fire in coal mine, such as few index selections, difficulty in determining index weight, unclear definition of evaluation grade and so on, which affects the accuracy of the evaluation results. On the basis of these, the evaluation system of coal mine internal fire is constructed based on four factors: coal seam geological occurrence, development and mining technology, coal seam spontaneous combustion tendency, ventilation condition and goaf management, and coal seam thickness, coal seam inclination and other 24 factors as the third-level index. By using the decision model and the Euclidean distance function, the subjective weight of the analytic hierarchy process and the objective weight of the entropy method are effectively integrated to obtain a more reasonable combined weight. The combined weighting-matter-element extension model is used to evaluate the internal fire in a coal mine. The result is “safer” grade, which is consistent with the engineering practice. The model is compared with the traditional evaluation method, the model is not only accurate, but also can reflect the degree of deviation within the evaluation grade, and can effectively improve the accuracy of the evaluation results.
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