基于AHP的脆弱性指数法煤层底板突水预测模型与应用
Mine floor water inrush prediction model and application based on AHP vulnerable index method
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摘要: 随着煤层开采深度的不断增加，煤矿生产过程中面临复杂的突水机理和多变的突水主控因素，使底板突水预测的难度不断增加。为准确预测底板突水危险性，采用脆弱性指数法求出各子因素的底板突水危险性权重，并利用层次分析法（AHP）划分底板突水危险阈值，从而建立煤层底板突水预测模型。分析整理了河南龙门煤业常村煤矿地质及水文地质资料，从突水水源、突水通道和隔水层3个方面将底板突水影响因素划分为含水层水压、出水量、注浆量、断层相似维、断层倾角、断层走向、断层落差和有效隔水层厚度等8个子因素；将底板突水危险性划分为5个区域：安全区[0．25，0．32）、较安全区[0．32，0．44）、较危险区[0．44，0．56）、危险区[0．56，0．70）、极危险区[0．70，0．85]；建立了基于AHP的脆弱性指数法评价模型。与传统的突水系数法相比，基于AHP的脆弱性指数法评价结果具有较好的准确性，且划分更加精细合理，为矿井水害预测预报提供了科学的评价方法和理论依据。Abstract: With the continuous increase of coal seam mining depth, the coal mine production faced with complex water inrush mechanism and changeable main controlling factors, which makes the prediction of floor water inrush more difficult. In order to accurately predict the risk of floor water inrush, the vulnerability index method was used to obtain the risk weight of floor water inrush for each sub-factor, and the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） was used to divide the risk threshold of floor water inrush, so as to establish coal seam floor water inrush prediction model. We analyzed the geological and hydro-geological data of Henan Longmen Coal Industry Changcun Coal Mine from the three aspects of water inrush sources, water inrush channels and aquifers, the influencing factors of floor water inrush are divided into eight factors: aquifer water pressure, water output, grouting volume, fault similarity dimension, fault dip, fault strike, fault drop and effective aquifer thickness. Based on eight sub-factors, the risk of floor water inrush is divided into five areas: safe area [0．25， 0．32）, relatively safe area [0.32, 0.44）, the more dangerous area [0.44, 0.56）, the dangerous area [0.56, 0.70）, and the extremely dangerous area [0.70, 0.85]. Finally, the vulnerability index method evaluation model based on AHP was established. Compared with the traditional water inrush coefficient method, the evaluation results of the vulnerability index method based on AHP have better accuracy, and the division is more refined andreasonable, which provides a scientific evaluation method and theoretical basis for the prediction of mine water hazards.
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