基于ISM-BN的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评判方法及其应用
Risk evaluation method of coal mine gas explosion based on ISM-BN and its application
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摘要: 为有效评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险，提出了一种基于解释结构模型（ISM）和贝叶斯网络（BN）的瓦斯爆炸风险评估方法；首先利用扎根理论对65起典型瓦斯爆炸事故案例进行3级编码，提取出13个瓦斯爆炸风险致因因素；其次通过解释结构模型建立贝叶斯网络结构，引入云模型计算贝叶斯网络节点的先验概率和条件概率，并将概率值导入GeNie软件中进行贝叶斯网络参数学习，对煤矿瓦斯爆炸发生可能性进行评价；最后对贝叶斯网络模型进行敏感性分析和诊断推理，分析诱发煤矿瓦斯爆炸的关键致因因素，并提出相应对策措施。以山西某矿为例进行评价方法应用，结果表明：除瓦斯超限和产生点火源2个瓦斯爆炸必要条件之外，煤尘爆炸、通风系统缺陷、瓦斯涌出、机电设备火花、煤自燃、设备失爆、违规爆破等因素是煤矿瓦斯爆炸的关键致因因素，且导致这些关键致因因素发生的深层原因是管理层因素，评价结果与实际情况相符。Abstract: In order to effectively assess the risk of gas explosion in coal mines, a gas explosion risk assessment method based on ISM-BN is proposed. Firstly, 65 typical gas explosion accident cases were coded at level 3 using grounded theory, and 13 risk factors of gas explosion were extracted; secondly, the Bayesian Network structure is established by interpreting the structure model, and the cloud model is introduced to calculate the prior probability and conditional probability of Bayesian Network nodes, and the probability value is imported into GeNie software for Bayesian Network parameter learning to evaluate the possibility of coal mine gas explosion; finally, the sensitivity analysis and diagnostic reasoning of Bayesian Network model are carried out to analyze the key causative factors of coal mine gas explosion, and put forward corresponding countermeasures. Taking a mine in Shanxi Province as an example to apply the evaluation method, the results show that, in addition to the two necessary conditions of gas explosion, gas overrun and ignition source, coal dust explosion, ventilation system defects, gas emission, electromechanical equipment sparks, coal spontaneous combustion, equipment explosion loss, illegal blasting and other factors are the key factors causing coal mine gas explosion. The underlying reasons for these key causative factors are management factors, and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation.
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