基于集对分析联系数模型的矿井火灾安全评价
Mine fire safety evaluation based on set pair analysis connection number model
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摘要: 针对煤矿火灾发生的不确定性和各项影响因素的模糊性，将集对分析法引入矿井火灾风险评价，建立基于集对分析的四元联系数模型，从内因火灾、外因火灾、防火管理和救灾系统3个方面建立2级共11个评价指标，采用层次分析法判断各级指标权重；利用该评价模型对宿州某矿火灾风险进行评价。结果表明：基于集对分析的四元联系数评价模型具有操作简单、克服系统中模糊因素难以量化的优势，不仅可对当前安全态势进行分析，还能对风险趋势做出合理的预测。Abstract: Ｉn view of the ambiguity of various factors affecting the uncertainty of coal mine fires, the set pair analysis method is introduced into the mine fire risk assessment, and a four-element connection number model based on set pair analysis is established. We establish 2 levels of 11 evaluation indicators from three aspects: internal fire, external fire, fire management and disaster relief system, and use the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights of indicators at all levels. We use this evaluation model to evaluate the fire risk of a certain mine in Suzhou. The results show that the four-element connection number evaluation model based on set pair analysis has the advantages of simple operation and overcoming the difficulty of quantifying the fuzzy factors in the system. It can not only analyze the current safety situation, but also can make reasonable predictions of risk trends.
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