Abstract: In order to predict the risk of coal and gas outburst more effectively, five factors are considered, including coal seam gas pressure, initial gas release velocity, coal firmness coefficient, coal failure type and coal seam porosity. Combined with analytic hierarchy process （ＡＨＰ） ａｎｄ ｇｒｅｙ ｔａｒｇｅｔ ｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ ｍｏｄｅｌ（ＧＴ）, the risk evaluation model of coal and gas outburst was established, and verified by five coal mines in Guizhou Province. The results show that the coal firmness coefficient has the greatest impact on coal and gas outburst, and the porosity has the smallest impact on coal and gas outburst. EH Coal Mine and SF Coal Mine are small outburst danger, DLT Coal Mine and QS Coal Mine are general outburst danger, and QH Coal Mine is large outburst danger. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation.