煤炭行业风险预控管理体系干预效应实证研究
Empirical study on intervention effect of risk pre-control management system in coal industry
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摘要: 为从定量角度分析我国煤矿安全风险预控管理体系建设带来的影响大小，以为后续推进体系建设提供客观依据，以2000—2019年煤矿行业每百万吨死亡率为干预效应衡量指标，通过建立干预分析模型，评估该体系对我国煤矿安全记录的具体影响程度。实证结果表明：煤炭行业风险预控管理体系建设的干预效果随着时间的增加逐渐增强，且在2017年达到顶峰，此后2年稍有下降，整体干预作用较为明显。最后从3个不同角度分析了2018和2019年干预效应弱化的原因，并从政府强制实施力度和煤矿企业内部管理优化等方面提出相关建议。Abstract: In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of the construction of China’s coal mine safety risk pre-control management system and provide objective basis for the subsequent promotion of the system construction, this paper takes the mortality per million tons of coal industry from 2000 to 2019 as the system intervention object, and evaluates the specific impact of the system on China’s coal safety records by establishing an intervention analysis model. The empirical results show that the intervention effect of risk pre-control management system construction in coal industry gradually increases with the increase of time, and reaches its peak in 2017, then decreases slightly in the next two years, and the overall intervention effect is obvious. Finally, the reasons for weakening the intervention effect in 2018 and 2019 are analyzed from three different angles, and relevant suggestions are proposed from the aspects of government enforcement and optimization of internal management of coal mining enterprises.
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