基于混沌粒子群的AWLSSVM瓦斯预测研究

    AWLSSVM Gas Prediction Research Based on Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization

    • 摘要: 为了提高矿井瓦斯浓度预测的准确性,提出1种改进混沌粒子群算法的多变量自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机(AWLSSVM)瓦斯预测模型,且实现了瓦斯浓度的多步预测。首先,对粒子群算法进行分析,提出1种收敛速度更快、全局搜索能力更强的改进混沌粒子群算法;针对加权最小二乘支持向量机(WLSSVM)权值线性分布的缺点,根据离散点的分布特征,提出了AWLSSVM;其次,采用混沌理论构建模型的样本集;最后,对建立的模型进行了实例分析。结果表明:AWLSSVM单变量预测精度相对于最小二乘支持向量机、WLSSVM分别提高了5.3%和6.7%;多变量AWLSSVM相对于单变量AWLSSVM五步预测精度分别提高了39.3%、49.6%、55.9%、59.7%、62.5%。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of mine gas concentration prediction, an improved multi-variate adaptive weighted least squares support vector machine(AWLSSVM) gas prediction model for chaotic particle swarm optimization is proposed, and multi-step prediction is realized. Firstly, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is analyzed. An improved chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm with faster convergence speed and stronger global search ability is proposed. Aiming at the shortcomings of the weighted least squares support vector machine(WLSSVM)weight distribution, AWLSSVM is proposed according to the distribution characteristics of discrete points. Secondly, the chaotic theory is used to construct a sample set. Finally, the performance of the prediction model was evaluated by mine monitoring data. The results indicate that in the univariate prediction, the prediction of AWLSSVM is 5.3% and 6.7% higher than the least squares support vector machine and WLSSVM. The multivariate accuracy is increased by 39.3%, 49.6%, 55.9%, 59.7% and 62.5%, relative to the univariate five-step prediction.

       

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