基于变权与正态云理论的煤矿安全评价及应用

    Coal Mine Safety Evaluation and Application Based on Variable Weight and Normal Cloud Theory

    • 摘要: 为准确对煤矿安全状态作出客观评价,综合考虑评估过程中指标的模糊性和状态随机性,构建基于变权与正态云理论的煤矿安全状态评估模型。结合正态云的数字特征量期望、熵、超熵组成的特定结构函数确定安全状态评判矩阵,得出各评价指标隶属于不同等级的确定度。同时为了避免常权方法确定权重的局限性及突出关键指标对综合评判结果的影响,引入变权理论对常权权重进行处理得到变权。结合实例研究,发现基于变权云理论评判方法对取值较差的指标作用不会被其他指标作用中和,可以有效地反映煤矿的真实安全状态,能够为煤矿的安全风险预测提供了一种技术途径。

       

      Abstract: To make an objective evaluation of coal mine safety state accurately, a coal mine safety state evaluation model based on variable weight and normal cloud theory is constructed by considering the fuzziness and randomness of indicators in the evaluation process. Combining with the specific structure function composed of the expectation,entropy and hyper-entropy of the normal cloud, the safety state evaluation matrix is determined, and the determination degree of each evaluation index belonging to different levels is obtained. At the same time, in order to avoid the limitation of the constant weight method and highlight the impact of key indicators on the comprehensive evaluation results, variable weight theory is introduced to deal with the constant weight to obtain variable weight. Combined with the case study, the evaluation method based on variable weight cloud theory will not be neutralized by other indicators, which can effectively reflect the real safety state of coal mine and provide a technical way for coal mine safety risk prediction.

       

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