基于长短时记忆神经网络的回采工作面瓦斯浓度动态预测

    Dynamic Prediction of Gas Concentration in Mining Face Based on Long Short-term Memory Neural Network

    • 摘要: 为提高煤矿回采工作面瓦斯浓度预测精度,考虑瓦斯浓度受历史状态制约,提出长短时记忆神经网络LSTMNN煤矿回采工作面瓦斯浓度动态预测模型。利用山西省某煤矿回采工作面瓦斯浓度实测数据构建该模型学习训练样本,并检验预测效果。研究表明,LSTMNN算法通过遗忘、记忆过程对过去一段时间瓦斯浓度信息进行筛选,克服传统预测方法将输出值独立看待的短板,提高矿井瓦斯浓度预测精确度及可靠性;将LSTMNN算法预测结果与实测值对比,预测模型平均绝对误差、平均相对误差、均方根误差、纳什模型效率指数分别为0.004 319、0.800 6%、0.005 714、0.436 3。

       

      Abstract: To improve the prediction accuracy of gas concentration in mining face, considering that gas concentration is restricted by historical state, a dynamic prediction model of gas concentration in mining face based on long short-term memory neural network (LSTMNN) is proposed. Using the measured data of gas concentration in a coal mining face in Shanxi Province, the model learning training samples were constructed and the prediction effect was tested. The research shows that LSTMNN algorithm filters the information of gas concentration in the past period through forgetting and memory process, overcomes the short board of traditional prediction method which regards the output value independently, and improves the accuracy and reliability of mine gas concentration prediction; by comparing the prediction results of LSTMNN algorithm with the measured values, the average absolute error, average relative error, root mean square error and Nash model efficiency index of the prediction model were respectively 0.004 319, 0.800 6%, 0.005 714 and 0.436 3.

       

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