Abstract: In order to accurately predict the mining deformation of the shaft, the predicted parameters of the probabilistic integral method in the backfilling mining are obtained. The internal movement of rock mass caused by backfilling mining is observed by numerical simulation, and the variation rule of predicted parameters is obtained. Research show that: the surface subsidence factor of backfilling mining increases by 0.62% comparing with caving mining, the displacement factor of backfilling mining increases by 10.03% comparing with caving mining, and the tangent of main influence angle of it reduces by 33.86% comparing with caving mining. The subsidence coefficient increases with the decrease of overburden height. The horizontal movement coefficient decreases first and then increases with the decrease of overburden height. The tangential value of main influence angle decreases with the decrease of overburden height. The estimated parameters of surface deformation in filling and caving mining are not the same. The variation range of subsidence coefficient in rock mass is greatly influenced by lithology and stratum, and the variation range of angle tangent is mainly influenced by lithology and stratum.