基于主成分分析法和熵值法的煤层气开采剩余资源量评价

    Evaluation of Residual Resources of Coalbed Methane Exploitation Based on Principal Component Analysis and Entropy Method

    • 摘要: 为了对晋城寺河矿西二盘区煤层气井开采剩余资源量进行评价,以14口井为研究对象,选取原始含气量、煤厚、埋深、抽采时间、累计产水量和累计产气量6个评价指标,利用主成分分析法,在6个评价指标中提取2个主成分(煤层气资源因素、煤层气工程排采因素)并得到其分值,再通过熵值法赋权和主成分分析法特征值赋权方法求取14口井综合得分,印证了2种赋权方法的可靠性。研究表明:单井累计抽采量、原始含气量与综合评分值分别呈正相关和负相关,即综合评分值越高单井影响范围内的剩余煤层气资源量越小,表明预测结论与原始数据存在较好的拟合,证明主成分分析法和熵权值结合法在煤层气开采剩余资源量评价中具有可靠性和适用性。

       

      Abstract: This paper evaluated the remaining resources of CBM wells in the west 2nd block of Jincheng Sihe Coal Mine. Taking 14 wells as the research objects, six evaluation indexes including original gas content, coal thickness, buried depth, extraction time, cumulative water production and cumulative gas production were selected. Two principal components (coalbed methane resource factor, coalbed methane engineering drainage factor) were extracted from six evaluation indexes by principal component analysis and their scores were obtained. Then, the comprehensive scores of 14 wells are obtained by entropy method and principal component analysis method, and the reliability of the two methods is verified. The study shows that the cumulative production and original gas content of a single well are positively and negatively correlated with the comprehensive scoring value respectively. In other words, the higher the comprehensive score value is, the smaller the remaining coalbed methane resources within the single well influence range. It indicates that the prediction conclusion has a good fit with the original data. It proves that the principal component analysis method and the entropy weight combination method are reliability and applicability in the evaluation of remaining resources of coalbed methane mining.

       

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