基于灰色关联分析的露天矿风险耦合机理模型研究

    Study on Model of Risk Coupling Mechanism of Open-pit Mine Based on Grey Relational Analysis

    • 摘要: 通过对某超大型露天煤矿108例事故通报的诱发过程分析,发现现场出现的扰动与被诱导出人的行为存在着交互耦合关系,这种耦合一旦形成极易激活生产事故。进一步将事故中的直接诱发因素梳理构建了评价二者耦合度的指标体系,运用灰色关联分析的基本思想,提出了测量二者风险耦合度的模型并计算出耦合度。计算结果显示:现场的扰动与被诱导出人的错误行为耦合关系是紧密关联的;加强现场生产的标准化管理或强化人的主动安全认知能力是避免生产事故的重要途径。

       

      Abstract: Based on the analysis of 108 accidents in a large open pit mine, it is found that there is an interaction coupling relationship between the disturbance and the induced human behavior at the scene. Once the coupling is formed, it is easy to activate production accidents. By combing the direct factors in the accident, the index system of evaluating the coupling degree of the two parties is constructed. By using the basic idea of grey relational analysis, a model is proposed to measure the coupling degree of the two risks and calculate the coupling degree. The calculation results show that the coupling relationship between field disturbance and human error behavior is closely related. Strengthening the standardized management of field production or enhancing the active safety cognitive ability of human is an important way to avoid accidents.

       

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