基于改进突变级数法的瓦斯爆炸危险性评价

    Risk Assessment of Gas Explosion Based on Improved Catastrophe Progression Method

    • 摘要: 为对复杂的瓦斯爆炸指标体系进行瓦斯爆炸危险性的评价,提出了基于突变级数理论的瓦斯爆炸危险性评价模型。基于突变级数法和合主成分分析法从“物-机-人-管理”4个方面构建矿井瓦斯爆炸危险性评价指标结构,对影响瓦斯爆炸的28个因素进行多层次分解,建立满足突变级数法要求的评价模型,以4个煤矿采掘工作面为例,确定各层指标的相对重要性,对各层指标数据进行无量纲化和归一化处理,确定突变级数值,并将计算结果与灰色-层次分析法评价进行比较,结果表明,2种模型评价结果总体保持一致,验证了所提方法的有效性和可靠性,为瓦斯爆炸危险性评价提供了一种新方法。

       

      Abstract: To evaluate the risk of gas explosion in the complex gas explosion index system, risk evaluation model of gas explosion based on catastrophe progression theory was proposed. We constructed assessment index system based on the principal component analysis and catastrophe progression to form “object-machine-human-management” four aspects to carry out multi-level decomposition from twenty-eight factors affecting gas explosion, and the evaluation model satisfying the requirements of catastrophe progression method was established; 4 coal mining faces were taken as the examples to determine the relative importance of each layer indicator; after the nondimensionalization and normalization processing of the influencing factors, catastrophe progression value was determined, and the results were compared with gray analytical hierarchy process. The study shows that the result of the two models was consistent, and the validity and reliability of the proposed method are verified.

       

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