中国能源消费碳排放与经济增长的动态关系
Dynamic Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in China’s Energy Consumption
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摘要: 基于中国1995—2014年的统计数据，运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和方差分解的方法，对我国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究，并得出以下主要结论：协整检验结果表明能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间存在协整关系，从协整关系式可以看出能源消费对碳排放的影响要远大于经济增长。格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明碳排放和能源消费之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系，能源消费和碳排放是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。对方差分解的结果进行分析，发现碳排放对能源消费和经济增长作用明显。Abstract: In this paper, we use the methods of unit root test, cointergration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition to empirically study the dynamic relationship of energy consumption, carbon emission and economic growth based on statistical data from 1995 to 2014 in China. The main conclusions from the study are that: there is a cointergration relationship among energy consumption, carbon emission and economic growth; cointergration relationship formula shows that energy consumption has more effect on carbon emission than economic growth; the results of Granger causality test find that there is a two-way Granger causal relation between carbon emission and energy consumption; energy consumption and carbon emission are the one-way Granger cause of economic growth; the results of variance decomposition suggest that carbon emission has significant influence on energy consumption and economic growth.
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