Abstract: In order to investigate the occurrence mechanism of Baoding Mining Area, according to the water filling factors of Baoding Mining Area, we focused on the analysis of the coal seam roof water inrush mechanism, and established FLAC mathematical model of overlying rock mass seepage instability criterion, and used water permeation factor as the criterion to determine whether the coal pillar was permeable. Combined with the data of indoor seepage test, we summed up the flooding occurrence mechanism of Baoding Mining area to guide the safety production.