基于影响因素优选的煤层瓦斯渗透率预测模型

    Prediction Model of Coalbed Gas Permeability Based on Optimization of Influencing Factors

    • 摘要: 通过相关性分析得到了煤层瓦斯渗透率与有效应力、温度、抗压强度及瓦斯压力间的相关系数,此外,对各影响因素进行互相关分析,发现彼此间存在不同程度的相关性。依据实验数据,利用MIV算法对煤层瓦斯渗透率影响因素进行优选,得到有效应力、温度和瓦斯压力参与最终BP神经网络建模。研究最终建立了2个煤层瓦斯渗透率预测模型,模型1不做影响因素优选,模型2基于影响因素优选,对模型进行试算和误差分析,结果表明:模型2具有更好的预测稳定性和精度,能很好地反映煤层瓦斯渗透率与其影响因素间隐含的映射关系。

       

      Abstract: We acquired the correlation coefficients between coal seam gas permeability and its influential factors which are effective stress, temperature, compressive strength and gas pressure by correlation analysis. In addition, the influence factors of coal seam gas permeability have cross correlation among each other according to correlation analysis. The mean impact value (MIV) method was used for the optimization of influencing factors and achieved the three main influential factors affecting coal seam gas permeability which are effective stress, temperature and gas pressure, and choosing them as input variables of BP neural network for modeling based on experimental data. In this study, two models of coal seam gas permeability were established, one of them is called model 1 which was built without optimization of influencing factors and the other one is called model 2 which was built with optimization of influencing factors. Through the modeling computation and error analysis, we can safely conclude that the model 2 has better stability and higher accuracy in model predictive, and it can reflect the mapping relationship between coal seam gas permeability and its influencing factors perfectly.

       

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