基于HHT-CS-ELM的瓦斯涌出量时序预测

    Prediction of Time Series for Gas Emission Quantity Based on HHT-CS-ELM Characteristics

    • 摘要: 为有效挖掘瓦斯涌出量监测数据隐含特征,预防瓦斯动力灾害,基于希尔伯特-黄变换(HHT)方法、布谷鸟搜索算法(CS)和极限学习机(ELM)基本理论,构建了瓦斯涌出量的HHT-CS-ELM动态预测模型。通过EMD将样本序列分解成多个不同频率的本征模态函数(IMF)分量;利用Hilbert变换获取各分量的瞬时频率,并据此将IMF分量划分成较高频和低频,采用不同的预测模型进行预测,经叠加各预测值得到最终预测结果。以汾西矿业集团某矿瓦斯涌出量监测数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明:HHT方法能有效降低数据复杂度,其最小相对误差为0.144%,最大相对误差为0.388%,平均相对误差为0.281%,具有较高的预测精度和泛化能力;更好地适用于非平稳时间序列预测。

       

      Abstract: To effectively excavate the implicit character of gas emission monitoring data, and to prevent the gas dynamical disaster, based on basic principle of Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method, the cuckoo search (CS) and extreme learning machine (ELM), the HHT-CS-ELM dynamic prediction model for gas emission quantity was built. The sample series was decomposed into multiple different frequencies intrinsic mode function (IMF) by EMD; the instantaneous frequency of each component was obtained by Hilbert transformation, then divided them into higher frequency and lower frequency; different prediction models were used to predict the IMF; the final prediction results were obtained by superimposing each forecast. This paper took the gas emission monitoring data in a coal of Fenxi Mining Industry as an example to carry out simulation experiment. The results show that: the HHT method can effectively reduce the complexity of the monitoring data, and the minimum relative error is 0.144%, the maximum relative error is 0.388%, the average relative error is 0.281%; this model has higher prediction precision and generalization ability; it can be well applied to non-stationary time series prediction.

       

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