Abstract: In order to study the forecast method of coal and gas outburst under complex conditions, taking 2^# coal seam of Tongshun Coal Mine as an example, regional sensitive indexes of dangerous forecast for coal and gas outburst are selected, this analysis, through direct downhole measurement and comparison tests at laboratory, concludes that gas content is the main index for forecast and critical value is 8 m³/t; gas pressure is a secondary index and the critical value is 0.60 MPa. It is found that △h₂ has the largest relative sensitivity, K₁ comes second, the least relative sensitivity is S in the same working face of Tongshun 2^# coal seam by fuzzy classification analysis method. So, △h₂ is selected as the sensitivity index in coal and gas outburst of Tongshun 2^# coal seam, K₁ and S as the auxiliary sensitivity indexes. It is determined that △h₂ is the sensitive index for predicting coal and gas outburst hazard by statistical learning theory and probabilistic distribution, and the critical value is 180 Pa （160 Pa for wet coal）; K₁ as the auxiliary sensitivity index for local prediction, critical value is 0.41 mL/（g·min^1/2） （dry coal）, S can reflects the stress of coal seam as the auxiliary sensitivity indexe for local prediction, critical values is 5.10 kg/m （dry coal）.