Abstract: In order to explore the stage of Chinese coal production safety situation from the perspective of development, overall grasp the future development trend, and continuously improve the coal mine safety production level in China. The comparison method of the peer point and the peer change rate was used to compare the coal safety production situation of China and America from the perspective of historical development. The method of peer change rate and fitting exponential function prediction was used to forecast the future development trend and million tons mortality of Chinese coal mine. The results show that the current development level of Chinese coal mine safety production is close to that of the United States in 1970s, and the change rate is roughly the same as that of the United States from 1940s to 1950s; in future, the improvement speed of Chinese coal mine safety production level will gradually slow down, and the million tons mortality will be from 0.04 to 0.06 in 2020.