多源异构变形预测模型融合方法在开采沉陷动态预测中的应用

    Application of Multi-source Heterogeneous Deformation Prediction Model Fusion Method in Dynamic Prediction of Mining Subsidence

    • 摘要: 为了克服单一非线性开采沉陷预测模型预测精度不高、可靠性差的缺点,通过对开采沉陷特点的分析和非线性预测模型优缺点的比较,优选了适应性强、性能互补好的AR模型、GM模型、三次指数平滑法模型和卡尔曼滤波模型4种模型,基于模型误差平方和最小的融合准则,构建了适用于开采沉陷动态预测的多源异构变形预测模型,利用实测数据求取了多源异构融合模型下沉、水平移动预测模型权系数,并对模型的预测性能进行了检验。结果表明多源异构融合模型相对于这4种单一模型预测精度高、可靠性好。

       

      Abstract: In order to overcome the disadvantages of low precision and poor reliability of the single nonlinear mining subsidence prediction model, by comparing the characteristics of mining subsidence and the advantages and disadvantages of nonlinear prediction model, four models with strong adaptability and complementary performance, which are AR model, GM model, Cubic exponential smoothing model and Kalman filtering model are selected. Based on the model error square and minimum fusion criterion, a multi-source heterogeneous deformation prediction model is constructed for mining subsidence dynamic prediction. The observed values were used to calculate the weight coefficients of the multi-source heterogeneous fusion model sinking and horizontal prediction model. And the predictive performance of the model is tested by using the multi-source heterogeneous fusion model; the results show that the multi-source heterogeneous fusion model has high precision and good reliability compared with these four single models.

       

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