基于AHP未确知测度模型的瓦斯爆炸风险评价

    Risk Assessment of Gas Explosion Based on AHP and Uncertainty Measurement Theory

    • 摘要: 为解决瓦斯爆炸风险等级难以判定的问题,将层次分析法和未确知测度理论结合建立了瓦斯爆炸风险评价模型。选取回风流平均瓦斯浓度,煤层瓦斯含量,平均相对瓦斯涌出量等15项影响因素作为评价指标,运用层次分析法计算权重,根据未确知测度理论建立测度函数,最后依据置信度识别准则判定风险等级。实例分析表明判定结果与实际相符,证实了该模型评价瓦斯爆炸风险等级是准确、可靠的,为今后矿井瓦斯防治工作提供一定的参考依据。

       

      Abstract: To solve the difficult problem in assessing the risk of gas explosion under coal mine, a model based on AHP and uncertainty measurement theory was built. Fifteen influence factors, such as average gas concentration, gas content of coal seam, average relative gas emission and so on, were made as the coal mine gas explosion indices. The index weights were judged by AHP and the measurement functions were built according to uncertainty measurement theory, the risk levels were determined by using credible degree recognition. Through practical application, the model results are consistent with the actual results, it can make a more accurate and reliable assessment of the coal mine gas explosion risk level and it will provide a powerful reference for the future work of coal mine gas prevention and control.

       

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