基于分形理论的煤矿不同等级事故的R/S分析

    R/S Analysis for Coal Mine Different Grade Accidents Based on Fractal Theory

    • 摘要: 为了掌握我国煤矿不同等级事故的演变特性及其规律,应用分形理论中的R/S分析方法,对2005-2014年我国煤矿不同等级事故死亡人数建立的3个时间序列进行分形特征研究,其重标极差的线性回归相关系数R分布在0.981 66~0.994 83区间内,将显著性水平定为α=0.05,对其进行单侧t检验,其线性回归方程可靠;3个时间序列的Hurst指数H分布在0.701 9~0.940 95之间,分形维数D分布在1.059 05-1.298 1区间内,各时间序列均呈现明显的Hurst现象和较强的约瑟效应。研究结果表明:我国煤矿不同等级事故持续降低及煤矿安全生产状况持续好转的趋势很强,R/S分析方法可以较好地反映煤矿安全生产复杂非线性系统动力学特性。

       

      Abstract: In order to master the evolution characteristics and laws of different rank coal mine accidents in China, the R/S analysis method of the fractal theory is used in this paper to build three time series based on the number of deaths of different rank coal mine accidents in China from 2005 to 2014, and its fractal characteristics are researched. Linear regression correlation coefficient R of its rescaled range distributes from 0.981 66 to 0.994 83, and its linear regression equation is reliable by unilateral t test on the basis of the significance level α=0.05; Hurst index H of three time series distributes from 0.701 9 to 0.940 95; fractal dimension D distributes from 1.059 05 to 1.298 1, three time series present distinct Hurst phenomenon and striking Joseph effect. The research results show that the tendency of coal mine production safety accidents reducing and production safety condition improving is strong, and R/S analysis method can better reflect complicated non-linear system dynamics characteristics of coal mine production safety.

       

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