基于ARIMA-GM模型的采掘工作面瓦斯涌出预测

    Gas Emission Forecasting at Heading Face Based on ARIMA-GM Model

    • 摘要: 为实现对煤矿采掘工作面瓦斯的动态涌出过程进行精确预测,以煤矿瓦斯涌出时间序列为基础,首先建立了灰色模型GM(1,1)和自回归积分移动平均模型(ARIMA)分别对瓦斯涌出浓度进行预测,然后再利用由方差倒数法得到的ARIMA-GM组合预测模型对瓦斯涌出浓度进行预测,最后结合预测结果进行预警。并以鑫顺煤矿15101掘进工作面为应用实例,结果表明:ARIMA-GM组合预测模型相比单一模型具有更高的预测精度和拟合效果。

       

      Abstract: In order to achieve the accurate forecasting of dynamic gas emission in coal mining and heading face, firstly, we utilize the gray model GM (1,1) and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) to forecast the concentration of gas emission respectively based on the time series, and then a new combination forecasting model, ARIMA-GM, built by the method of variance reciprocal weighting is represented to forecast and analyze the concentration of gas emission, finally, the gas pre-warning is obtained according to forecasting results. An application example of forecasting in 15101 heading face of Xinshun Coal Mine is presented and its results show that the combination forecasting model of ARIMA-GM provides a better fitting effect and a higher forecasting accuracy compared with single model.

       

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