Abstract: According to the frequent disasters of support crushing and water inrush, it was proposed that the risk prediction method of support crushing and water inrush during mining under the loaded aquifer. Firstly, combined with the aquifer characters and the load transfer characteristics, the load transfer coefficient of the confined aquifer was determined. Secondly, the identification method of key stratum location was used to judge the structure type of overlying strata key stratum in mining area. If the overlying strata were the structure of composite single key stratum, there was the hazard of support crushing and water inrush in working face. This method had been applied in the risk prediction of support crushing and water inrush in working face 7₁31 of Qidong Coal Mine, it indicated that there was the hazard of support crushing and water inrush in II and III section of this working face, and it was need to take precautions in advance. The engineering practice had validated the prediction results.