矿山统计法瓦斯涌出量预测模型存在的问题与校正
Problems and Correction of Gas Emission Prediction Model in Mine Statistical Method
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摘要: 矿山统计法是煤矿相对瓦斯涌出量预测的重要方法之一，在采用煤矿实际相对瓦斯涌出量与开采深度的数据关系预测相对瓦斯涌出量时，计算发现AQ1018-2006《矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法》中矿井相对瓦斯涌出量随开采深度的变化梯度α计算公式（采用多水平实际相对瓦斯涌出量资料）存在问题。针对该问题，运用最小二乘法的统计原理，推导利用多水平实际相对瓦斯涌出量计算α值的数学模型。进一步采用煤矿实际相对瓦斯涌出量数据验证该公式的正确性，为应用矿山统计法预测煤矿瓦斯涌出量的工程实践奠定基础。Abstract: The mine statistical method is one of the important methods to the relative gas emission prediction. By using the relationship between relative gas emission and mining depth data to predict relative gas emission, it is found that there is a problem of gas emission change gradient α calculation formula (according to multiple levels actual gas emission data) with the mining depth in the Prediction of Mine Gas Emission (AQ1018-2006) industry standard. In order to solve this problem, a correct mathematical model about the change of gradient α is reduced by using statistical theory of the least squares method. The correctness of the correct change of gradient α is verified by using the actual relative gas emission data in a mine, which has provided a foundation for the application of engineering practice to predict the gas emission with the mine statistical method.
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