基于PCA-FOA-GRNN的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测

    Gas Emission Prediction of Working Face Based on PCA-FOA-GRNN

    • 摘要: 回采工作面瓦斯涌出量受多种因素共同影响,很难用线性方法进行准确预测。广义回归神经网络(GRNN)是一种前馈神经网络,具有鲁棒性好和高容错率的优点,并且调节参数只有1个,因此,基于GRNN构建预测模型,运用改进的果蝇优化算法(FOA)对传统GRNN模型进行优化,应用主成分分析法(PCA)对样本数据进行降维简化处理,以减少次要因素对预测结果的干扰。选取晓明矿数据对模型进行验证,预测效果良好,其平均绝对误差为3.98%,低于传统GRNN模型的7.06%。

       

      Abstract: Working face gas emission quantity affected by many factors, it is difficult to accurately predict through a linear method. Generalized regression neural network is a feed-forward neural network, with good robustness and high fault tolerance, and only one adjustable parameter, so we adopted GRNN to build predictive model. Then the improved FOA was applied to optimize the traditional GRNN model. Meanwhile, the PCA was adopted to simplify the sample data to reduce interference by secondary factors on prediction result. Chosen Xiaoming mine data to validate the model, the prediction is good, and the average absolute error was 3.45%, less than 10.06% of traditional GRNN model.

       

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