基于突变理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价
Water Inrush Risk Evaluation of Coal Seam Floor Based on Catastrophe Theory
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摘要: 针对煤矿底板突水的不确定、非线性特征，引入多层次、多准则的突变理论，在对滕北矿区16煤层底板突水危险性评价指标体系分析的基础上，基于突变理论的突变级数法，对评价指标进行多层次分解，利用突变理论与多相模糊统计方法相结合产生突变隶属函数，由归一化公式进行综合突变级数计算，建立底板突水评价模型,共完成矿区9个地段的突水危险性评价。实践证明该模型能够减少数据处理的复杂性，避免人为确定权重的主观性，为煤层底板突水危险性评价提供了新的思路。Abstract: Aiming at the uncertain, non-linear characteristics of floor water inrush in coal mines, the multi-level, multi-criteria catastrophe theory was introduced. On the basis of the analysis of water inrush risk evaluation index system for 16 coal seam floor in Tengbei mining area, based on the catastrophe progression method of catastrophe theory, the evaluation index was decomposed in multi-level. Combined catastrophe theory with the multiphase fuzzy statistical method, mutations membership function was obtained, comprehensive mutation series calculation was conducted by the normalization formula, the evaluation model of floor water inrush was established, and water inrush risk evaluation of nine sections in mining area had been finished. The results showed that the model could reduce the complexity of data processing, avoid the subjectivity of artificial weights, which provided a new idea for the water inrush risk evaluation of coal seam floor.
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Keywords:
- catastrophe theory /
- water inrush /
- normalization /
- risk evaluation
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