煤矿风险预控管理中危险源系统可靠性分析
Reliability Analysis of Hazard Source System in Coal Mine Risk Pre-control Management
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摘要: 煤矿危险源状态的变化会产生风险，在煤矿的安全管理中，对危险源状态的识别分析对控制危险源状态变化进而切断煤矿事故因果链具有重要意义。首先从系统角度出发，在对煤矿安全风险预控管理中危险源系统时态和状态分析的基础上对其进行通用性建模；接着以一类系统寿命服从Phase Type分布的危险源系统为例，对其进行了可靠性建模与分析。通过研究得到该类危险源系统的瞬时状态概率、可靠度、可用度、异常失效概率、首次到达异常和紧急失效的时间等可靠性指标，并且给出了相应的实际算例，用以验证所得到的结果。
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关键词:
- 煤矿 /
- 风险预控管理 /
- 危险源 /
- Phase Type分布 /
- 可靠性分析
Abstract: The changes of coal mines hazard source state will probably lead to risk, identifying and analyzing the state changes of hazard source plays important place to control the state changes and cut the causal chain of the coal mine accidents in coal mine safety management. From the aspect of system, this article models the hazard source system of risk precontrol management of coal mines by analyzing hazard source tense system and state. Taking the hazard source system obeying Phase Type distribution as an example, this article employs the system reliability theory to analyze its reliability indices including the instantaneous state probabilities, the reliability, availability, abnormal failure probability, first failure to abnormal and emergency failure. Some numerical examples are introduced to verify the procedures. -
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