基于GM(1,1)模型的强矿震预测

    Prediction of Strong Mining-induced Earthquake Based on GM(1, 1) Model

    • 摘要: 研究强矿震的短临预测信息具有较大的实用价值。结合工程实例阐述该理论模型建模方法,精度处理方法等,以原始时间序列数据为基础,建立矿震发生步距的模拟和预测GM(1,1)模型。针对数值模拟中大量的矩阵计算,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现了对矿震发生步距的模拟和预测。为了检验模型模拟和预测结果的精度,选择了合理的误差检验模型。通过工程实例证明了GM(1,1)模型可信度较高,关联度较好,均方差比值为一级,拟合优度高。

       

      Abstract: The short imminent forecasting information of strong mining-induced earthquake has great practical value.This paper,combined with an engineering project,illustrated the theoretic modeling method,precision processing method,etc and established a simulation and prediction GM(1,1) model on drawing pace of great mining earthquake based on the primordial time series data.Seeing that there was a lot of matrix calculation in the numerical simulation,an effective computer program compiled by MATLAB(Matrix Laboratory)software was used to fulfill simulation and prediction on drawing pace of mining-induced earthquake.Some reasonable error test models were chose to test the precision of the model.The engineering project showed that the model had higher credibility,good correlation and high goodness of fit.The mean square deviation ratio of this model is one-level.The research result has directive significance for the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction work in coal mines.

       

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