基于分形与模糊综合评价法的矿井突水危险性评价
Risk Evaluation of Mine Water Inrush Based on the Fractal and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method
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摘要: 选取恒源煤矿作为研究对象，通过分形理论中的分维值对矿井构造复杂程度进行定量评价，分析了构造复杂程度与矿井突水的耦合关系。运用模糊综合评判方法对恒源矿6煤底板突水进行危险性评价，对矿井底板突水的危险区域进行分区与预测。结果表明，矿井的总体构造较为复杂，全区的分维值达1.31，但构造复杂性具有明显的不均一性，分维值越大构造越复杂，突水点的分布就越集中紧密； 6煤层底板大部分突水危险程度较高，较危险、危险类区域合计占47%，大部分突水点均分布在矿井中部的较危险～危险区域，与实际的情况基本相符。Abstract: Selecting Hengyuan Coal Mine as research object, the paper quantitatively evaluated the complexity of the mine structure through fractal dimension in fractal theory，and analyzed coupling relationship between structural complexity and mine inrush. The paper evaluated mine floor water inrush in Hengyuan No.6 Coal Mine with fuzzy comprehensive method, divided and forecasted water inrush risk region.The results show that mine structure is more complicated in general, the fractal dimension value of the region reaches 1.31, but the complexity of mine structures have obvious nonuniformity，the greater of the fractal dimension is, the more complicated of the structure is, and the distribution of water inrush points are more intensive; the fuzzy evaluation result shows that most of No.6 coal seam floor has high water invasion criticality; more dangerous and dangerous area accounts for 47%; grade classification of floor water inrush conforms to reality; most of the water inrush points which are in the middle of the mine are more dangerous or dangerous zone.
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