Abstract: In order to predict the surface movement and deformation caused by coal seam mining, a mining subsidence estimation system is designed and developed with the help of C# language and ArcGIS Engine component tool library based on the probability integration method of polar coordinate system. The system is applicable to irregularly shaped mining workings, and is capable of predicting the subsidence, horizontal movement, horizontal deformation, tilt and curvature of various points on the surface of the mining area after different mining times, and post-process the prediction results to draw the surface movement and deformation cloud map. Taking 308 working face mining of a mine in Shaanxi Province as an example, the probability integral parameters are selected according to the mining conditions and formation lithology of the working face and are substituted into the system to predict the surface movement and deformation, and the results are compared with the measured surface movement and deformation. The results show that the relative error between the predicted surface subsidence value and the measured subsidence value is less than 10%, and the subsidence basin shape is basically consistent with the reality. The predicted result of the system is relatively reliable, and has certain applicability to the mining subsidence prediction.