基于注意力机制的CNN-GRU煤层气产能预测方法研究

    Prediction of coalbed methane well productivity based on attention mechanism of CNN-GRU

    • 摘要: 为优化当前煤层气产气量预测方法,探讨煤层气产能排采数据历史状态影响及时序过长导致丢失关键信息的问题,提出了一种基于Attention机制的卷积门控循环单元网络的煤层气产能预测模型;选取5个与日产气相关性较高的排采参数,利用韩城区块煤层气井现场排采数据构建并训练煤层气产能预测模型,预测未来该井区160 d的产气量情况。研究结果表明:引入注意力机制的组合模型CNN-GRUA,通过提取数据高层特征、并降低历史序列关键信息丢失的影响,克服了传统预测方法无法处理数据间非线性、时序性以及信息丢失的问题;相比BP神经网络、卷积神经网络、门控循环单元和未引入注意力机制的CNN-GRU等模型,组合CNN-GRUA模型具有更高的预测精度,平均绝对误差百分比仅为1.72%。

       

      Abstract: In order to optimize the current prediction method of coalbed methane production and solve the problem of losing key information due to the influence of historical state of coalbed methane production data and too long sequence, a coalbed methane production prediction model based on attention mechanism of convolutional neural network was proposed. Firstly, the five drainage parameters with high correlation with daily gas production are selected, and the CBM productivity prediction model is constructed and trained based on the field drainage data of the well in Hancheng Block. Finally, the production capacity of the well area in the next 160 days is predicted by the model. The research results show that combined model CNN-GRUA with attention mechanism overcomes the problems that traditional prediction methods cannot deal with, including nonlinearity between data, time sequence and information loss, by extracting high-level features of data and learning the correlation of time series. Compared with BP neural network, convolutional neural network (CNN), gated recurrent unit(GRU) and CNN-GRU without attention mechanism model, the CNN-GRUA combined model has higher prediction accuracy, and the mean absolute percentage error is 1.72%.

       

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