基于回归Shapley值分解法的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量影响因素研究

    Study on influencing factors of gas emission in mining face based on regression shapley value decomposition method

    • 摘要: 随着开采深度的增加,井下环境变得愈加复杂,亟需明确各因素对回采工作面瓦斯涌出量变化的影响程度。通过基于回归的Shapley值分解法,确定各因素对影响回采工作面瓦斯涌出量的贡献率;通过SPSS统计分析软件对数据进行分析,确保所得数据符合应用多元线性回归分析的前提条件;通过stata统计分析软件,利用OLS回归方法对修正后的数据进行数学建模,建立回归方程;基于Shapley值分解法,将回归方程进行分解,利用验证组数据对分解结果进行验证。煤层赋存条件为超厚煤层且第四系地层以黄土为主的前提下,得出各因素对影响回采工作面瓦斯涌出量的贡献率为:煤层厚度>工作面推进速度>煤层瓦斯含量>煤层上覆基岩厚度,煤层厚度为影响回采工作面瓦斯涌出量的决定性因素;通过将煤层厚度、工作面推进速度、煤层瓦斯含量、煤层上覆基岩厚度归纳为自然因素与开采因素,得出自然因素为影响回采工作面瓦斯涌出量的决定性因素。

       

      Abstract: With the increasing of mining depth, the underground environment becomes more complex and so it is urgent to determine the influence degree of various factors on the change of gas emission in the mining face. The Shapley value decomposition method, based on regression, was used to determine the contribution of each factor to the amount of gas gushing from the recovery workings. SPSS statistical analysis software was used to analyze the data to ensure that the obtained data met the prerequisite of applying multiple linear regression analysis; through stata statistical analysis software, OLS regression method was used to model the modified data and establish the regression equation. Based on the Shapley value decomposition method, the regression equation is decomposed, and the decomposition results are verified by the verification group data. On the premise that the occurrence condition of coal seam is super thick coal seam and the quaternary stratum is mainly loess, it is concluded that the contribution rate of each factor affecting the gas emission of the mining face is as follows: coal seam thickness > advancing speed of the working face > gas content of the coal seam > the thickness of the overlying bedrock of the coal seam, and the thickness of the coal seam is the decisive factor affecting the gas emission of the mining face. By summarizing the thickness of coal seam, advancing speed of working face, gas content of coal seam and thickness of overlying bedrock of coal seam as natural factors and mining factors, it is concluded that natural factors are the decisive factors affecting the amount of gas emission in working face.

       

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